Category Archives: Perspectives

Paradice Australian Equities Fund June 2025 Commentary

June, 2025

Monthly Commentary

Paradice Australian Equities Team

Market Review

Despite a turbulent start, the S&P 500 (in USD) and the S&P/ASX 200 (in AUD) Total Return Index staged an impressive rally, up by 10.9% and 9.5% respectively during the quarter. The market climbed a wall of worries, including elevated tariff uncertainty, geopolitical instability with Israel launching an attack on Iran, and simmering concerns over the ballooning US fiscal debt. 

The S&P/ASX 200 was led by Information Technology, which rose by 28% as the market swung back towards AI. Financials were +15% led by CBA which rose to an all-time high. Materials (0.7%) and Utilities (+2.0%) and other low beta names lagged.

The Bloomberg Commodities index declined 3.1% (in USD). Gold leapt 5.8% (in USD) as a safety trade against economic uncertainty and on central bank demand, and Copper and Aluminium followed, rising by 3.8% and 3.3% respectively (both in USD). Despite heighted volatility due to the Middle East conflict, the Brent closed the quarter -9.5% (in USD).

The USD continues to edge lower, down –7.0% for the quarter. As previously discussed, investors may be concerned about 1) Fiscal concerns around US debt which is exacerbated as foreign investors reduce holdings of Treasury bond, forcing issuances at possibly higher rates. 2) Weakening investor confidence due to political instability and trade uncertainty; and 3) Rising share of alternatives to the USD.

We had been expecting stagflation: a combination of higher price pressures and weaker growth.  Those expectations have not manifested in hard data.  The CPI has remained steady, while US non-farm payrolls1 surprised to the high side. This could still be pending; most countries have enjoyed a tariff reprieve until the Trump administration’s July 9 deadline.

Performance

The Fund returned 7.16% for the June quarter, underperforming the benchmark of 9.50% by 2.34%.

Contributors/Detractors

Positives

  • Santos (STO) – Overweight: Rose on higher oil prices and takeover offer from an Abu Dhabi led consortium.
  • Catapult (CAT) – Overweight: Rose on a solid result and tech rally
  • Newmont (NEM) – Overweight: Rose on higher gold prices
  • Woodside (WDS) – Underweight: Underperformed the broader rally. The portfolio closed the underweight during the quarter as Middle East conflict triggered a spike in oil prices.
  • Rio Tinto (RIO) – Underweight: Iron ore prices underperformed and the CEO announced his pending departure.

Negatives

  • Commonwealth Bank (CBA) – Underweight: CBA continued to rally on minimal earnings changes.
  • Treasury Wine (TWE) – Overweight: US wine demand continues to be soft. The impact Trump’s tariffs may have on consumer spending also weighed on sentiment.
  • Ansell (ANN) – Overweight: Declined on tariff impact and anticipated industrial slowdown
  • Block (XYZ) – Overweight: Declined on lowered 2Q25 guidance, portfolio weight was trimmed.
  • Alcoa (AAI) – Overweight: Tariff impacted and expectations of lower aluminium demand due to slower growth

 

Portfolio Changes

Purchases

  • National Australia Bank (NAB): Increased to manage overall Financials position and risk
  • Commonwealth Bank (CBA): Increased to manage overall Financials position and risk
  • Xero (XRO): Increased on increased confidence around subscriber and Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) growth
  • Santos (STO): Increased on higher oil price expectations in light of Middle East conflict
  • Cleanaway (CWY): New position, on confidence around improved earnings trajectory

Sales

  • Newmont (NEM): Trimmed on outperformance and some signs of tariff uncertainty unwinding.
  • CSL (CSL): Reduced on weakening flu vaccine backdrop and impact of potential tariffs on plasma
  • QBE (QBE): Reduced on moderating global premium environment
  • BHP (BHP): Reduced on lower iron ore prices
  • Block (XYZ): Reduced on lowered 2Q25 gross profit outlook

Outlook and Positioning 

Markets have rallied strongly over the last quarter as they increasingly discount USA tariff related negotiations as more rhetoric than long lasting policy. Whilst this may be true over the long term, in the short term there are still plenty of deals to be concluded, many of which will inevitably settle at higher tariffs than those in effect prior to Trump 2.0. These tariffs should have a negative effect on economic activity in the USA and abroad given they are a transfer of wealth from private to public (USA government) with the ultimate effect depending on the size of the tariffs.

Any tariff related impacts could, however, be offset by a faster pace of interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) if they chose to look through any tariff induced inflation as short-term noise. In any case an expectation of decelerating economic growth in the 2nd half of 2025 will require the Fed to cut rates especially if relatively expensive equity markets are to be supported at current or higher levels. If the Fed cuts 3 times in 2025, as the rates market currently expects, then equity markets may look through any short-term economic slowdown and keep charging into 2026. Historically though, buying the S&P500 on greater than the current 22x PE has not yielded good long-term returns for investors so some caution is likely warranted for now.

In Australia, a pending RBA rate cutting cycle should support domestic cyclicals and potentially see the private sector do some of the heavy lifting which for the last couple of years has been the sole domain of the government sector. With the market trading at 19x forward earnings, cheaper money-courtesy of RBA rate cuts may be exactly what’s needed to sustain elevated earnings multiples over the next 12 months.

For further details on fund positioning please refer to the Paradice Australian Equities Quarterly Fact Sheet.

1Source: US Bureau of Labour Statistics

Disclaimer:

This material is prepared by Paradice Investment Management Pty Ltd (ABN 64 090 148 619 AFSL No 224158) (Paradice, we or us) to provide you with general information only. It is not intended to take the place of professional advice and you should not take action on specific issues in reliance on this information.

This material is not intended to constitute advertising or advice (including investment advice or security, market or sector recommendations) of any kind. In addition, this material represents only the views of the Paradice Australian Equities team as at the time of release and is not intended, and may not, represent the views of Paradice or any of the other investment teams at Paradice.

Equity Trustees Limited (ABN 46 004 031 298, AFSL No. 240975) (Equity Trustees) is the responsible entity of, and issuer of units in, the Paradice Australian Equities Fund (Fund). Equity Trustees is a subsidiary of EQT Holdings Limited (ABN 22 607 797 615), a publicly listed company on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX:EQT). 

It may contain certain forward looking statements, opinions and projections that are based on the assumptions and judgments of Paradice with respect to, among other things, future economic, competitive and market conditions and future business decisions, all of which are difficult or impossible to predict accurately and many of which are beyond the control of Paradice. Because of the significant uncertainties inherent in these assumptions, opinions and judgments, you should not place undue reliance on these forward looking statements. For the avoidance of doubt, any such forward looking statements, opinions, assumptions and/or judgments made by Paradice may not prove to be accurate or correct. You should perform your own research and due diligence, consult your own financial, legal, and tax advisors before making any investment decision with respect to transacting in any securities covered herein. Specific securities identified herein are not representative of all securities purchased, sold, or recommended by the Fund previously or in the future. Following publication of this material, the investment teams at Paradice may transact or continue to transact in any of the securities covered herein, and may be positive, negative or neutral at any time hereafter regardless of our initial conclusions, or opinions.

The content of this publication is current as at the date of its publication and is subject to change at any time. It does not reflect any events or changes in circumstances occurring after the date of publication. 

You should consider your own needs and objectives and consult with a licensed financial adviser when deciding whether the Fund is suitable for you. Past performance should not be taken as an indicator of future performance. You should also read the current Product Disclosure Statement before making a decision about whether to invest in this product and the Target Market Determination available at www.paradice.com . A Target Market Determination is a document which describes who this financial product is likely to be appropriate for (i.e. the target market), and any conditions around how the product can be distributed to investors. This material is not to be copied, reproduced or published at any time without the prior written consent of Paradice. Neither Paradice, Equity Trustees, nor any of their respective related parties, directors or employees, make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, completeness, reasonableness or reliability of the information contained in this publication or accept liability or responsibility for any losses, whether direct, indirect or consequential, relating to, or arising from, the use or reliance on any part of this material. 

Copyright© 2025 Paradice

Paradice Australian Equities Fund May 2025 Commentary

 May, 2025

Monthly Commentary

Paradice Australian Equities Team

Paradice Australian Equities Fund May 2025 Commentary

Market Review

The S&P/ASX 300 Total Return Index rebounded 4.2% over May 2025, supported by easing trade tensions. The S&P500 Total Return Index meanwhile rose 6.3% (in USD) during the month.

Global trade relationships and tariffs remain a moving target as the USA attempts to reset trade relations with all major trading partners simultaneously. The USD failed to recover and was flat over the month, as concerns mounted that Trump’s erratic policy decisions may have damaged the U.S. dollar’s reserve status. Gold was also flat over the month as investors sought safe-haven assets.

Across the ASX200, Information Technology was the best performing sector +19.8%, underpinned by stocks such as Life 360, Technology One and Xero. Utilities, Consumer Staples and Health Care were laggards.

In Australia the RBA cut rates by 25bps to 3.85% noting that inflation is within the target range whilst citing weaker global growth as a potential risk. Three more rate cuts are anticipated before the end of 2025 by the bond market. The 2025 Australian federal election reaffirmed the Australian Labour Party in a landslide victory. Overall government policies are modestly stimulatory and reflect Labour’s continued push towards lowering cost of living (e.g. extending energy rebates, bulk billing expansion). The Fair Work Commission also announced a 3.5% increase in the national minimum wage effective 1 July 2025. This covers approximately 20% of the Australian work force and importantly ensures real wage growth above inflation.

Performance

The Paradice Australian Equities Fund was down 39ps net of fees vs the benchmark1 for the month of May 2025. Top 3 contributors were Catapult, Seek and Qantas (all overweight position). Top 3 detractors were Treasury Wine Estate, Newmont and Block (all overweight).

Noteworthy industry / macro developments

#1. USD under pressure, safe haven status challenged

Despite a sharp rebound in global equities, with the S&P500 rising to within 3% of all-time high (reached in Feb-25), the USD has persistently faced downward pressure.

The following chart shows the relationship between the US 10-year government bond yield (blue line) and the USD (white line). Whilst there has been somewhat of a loose correlation historically, there has been a clear divergence to date in 2025.

Several reasons likely drive this:

  1. Fiscal concerns around US debt: The national debt surpassed US$35 trillion, just as cUS$9 trillion will be refinanced in 2025 against a backdrop of higher US interest rates. US interest payments are likely to rise to cUS$1 trillion in 2025, amplifying an already sizeable fiscal gap. This is exacerbated as foreign investors reduce holdings of Treasury bonds, forcing issuances at possibly higher rates.
  2. Weakening investor confidence due to political instability and trade uncertainty: Inconsistent and unpredictable trade policies are creating market unpredictability. We note Moody’s Ratings became the third and final credit rating to downgrade the S. government’s debt from its top rating by one notch from Aaa to Aa1.
  3. Rising share of alternatives to the USD: The dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves has been declining from over 70% in 2000 to 58% as at the end of 20242, reflecting a gradual shift towards alternatives like the euro, yuan and gold. Geopolitical shifts such as sanctions on Russia, and US-China tensions have accelerated efforts by nations to diversify away from dollar dependency, undermining its dominance. A lower USD makes imports more expensive and possibly exacerbates inflationary pressures in the US.

#2. Possible reallocation of capital flow away from US to Rest of the World

According to a recent report, which cited EPFR data, there have been cUS$2.5 trillion inflows to US assets (treasuries, corporate bonds), and US$1.3 trillion inflows into US stocks alone since 2020. The Fed Flow of Funds showed foreign investors owning sizeable levels of US stocks . This may mean that a small reallocation away from US stocks could have a positive impact on other global markets including Australia. Anecdotally this could be a factor driving up share prices of large, liquid Australian companies such as Commonwealth Bank and Wesfarmers.

#3. Troughing office market?

The Australian office market has been confronted with a valuation declines of up to 25% since their peak in 2022, reflecting factors such as high interest rates, low occupancy due to work from home and oversupply.

We are cautiously optimistic the office market has broadly troughed, with most listed REITs reporting an office cap rate of 6.0-6.5%, c200-250bps above the Australian 10-year government bond yield, in line with the historical premium. 

However, as the following chart from CBRE shows, there is extreme bifurcation in net effective rent growth depending on whether the building is super prime (key streets of the CBD), A grade or B grade. Positively, whilst incentives and refurbishment costs remain high, the bid ask spread for office transactions have narrowed and we expect to see the return of transaction activity.

As such we remain selective in picking office REITs, with a focus on asset quality and sustainable cashflow.

For further details on fund positioning please refer to the Paradice Australian Equities Quarterly Fact Sheet.

1Benchmark is the S&P/ASX 200 Total Return Index

2IMF Foreign Exchange Holdings in US Dollars (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Disclaimer:

This material is prepared by Paradice Investment Management Pty Ltd (ABN 64 090 148 619 AFSL No 224158) (Paradice, we or us) to provide you with general information only. It is not intended to take the place of professional advice and you should not take action on specific issues in reliance on this information.

This material is not intended to constitute advertising or advice (including investment advice or security, market or sector recommendations) of any kind. In addition, this material represents only the views of the Paradice Australian Equities team as at the time of release and is not intended, and may not, represent the views of Paradice or any of the other investment teams at Paradice.

Equity Trustees Limited (ABN 46 004 031 298, AFSL No. 240975) (Equity Trustees) is the responsible entity of, and issuer of units in, the Paradice Australian Equities Fund (Fund). Equity Trustees is a subsidiary of EQT Holdings Limited (ABN 22 607 797 615), a publicly listed company on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX:EQT). 

It may contain certain forward looking statements, opinions and projections that are based on the assumptions and judgments of Paradice with respect to, among other things, future economic, competitive and market conditions and future business decisions, all of which are difficult or impossible to predict accurately and many of which are beyond the control of Paradice. Because of the significant uncertainties inherent in these assumptions, opinions and judgments, you should not place undue reliance on these forward looking statements. For the avoidance of doubt, any such forward looking statements, opinions, assumptions and/or judgments made by Paradice may not prove to be accurate or correct. You should perform your own research and due diligence, consult your own financial, legal, and tax advisors before making any investment decision with respect to transacting in any securities covered herein. Specific securities identified herein are not representative of all securities purchased, sold, or recommended by the Fund previously or in the future. Following publication of this material, the investment teams at Paradice may transact or continue to transact in any of the securities covered herein, and may be positive, negative or neutral at any time hereafter regardless of our initial conclusions, or opinions.

The content of this publication is current as at the date of its publication and is subject to change at any time. It does not reflect any events or changes in circumstances occurring after the date of publication. 

You should consider your own needs and objectives and consult with a licensed financial adviser when deciding whether the Fund is suitable for you. Past performance should not be taken as an indicator of future performance. You should also read the current Product Disclosure Statement before making a decision about whether to invest in this product and the Target Market Determination available at www.paradice.com . A Target Market Determination is a document which describes who this financial product is likely to be appropriate for (i.e. the target market), and any conditions around how the product can be distributed to investors. This material is not to be copied, reproduced or published at any time without the prior written consent of Paradice. Neither Paradice, Equity Trustees, nor any of their respective related parties, directors or employees, make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, completeness, reasonableness or reliability of the information contained in this publication or accept liability or responsibility for any losses, whether direct, indirect or consequential, relating to, or arising from, the use or reliance on any part of this material. 

The information and opinions contained herein, including information obtained from third party sources which are considered to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and, as such, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of any assumption contained herein and no responsibility arising for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Paradice, its officers, employees or agents. 

Copyright© 2025 Paradice

Paradice Australian Equities Fund April 2025 Commentary

 April, 2025

Monthly Commentary

Paradice Australian Equities Team

Paradice Australian Equities Fund April 2025 Commentary

Market Review

The S&P/ASX 300 Total Return Index fell 6.4% over the first five days of April following tariff announcements by President Trump, only to rally 10.7% and end the month up 3.6%. As markets initially reacted negatively, Trump softened his stance, suspending the implementation of tariffs for 90 days and offering concessions. This shift gave investors’ confidence that Trump may reverse course if sustained market declines occur.

Despite this, the USD failed to fully recover and declined 4.6% over the month, as concerns mounted that Trump’s erratic policy decisions may have damaged the U.S. dollar’s reserve status. Gold rose 5.3% (in USD) over the month as investors sought safe-haven assets. Unwinding this trade may prove more challenging.

The Federal Reserve may eventually offer some policy offset. However, with business pricing responses still uncertain and inflation unclear, any rate cut may be delayed in the near term. Our view remains that tariffs are ultimately a tax on consumers and pushes up prices of goods whilst dampening the growth outlook. Even if corporates relocated manufacturing to the US, it is not clear where the labour force would come from given c90% of the labour force is engaged in services, and whether the output could be priced competitively.

In Australia, the equity market impact of the Labor Party’s election victory is expected to be minor. Australia’s Q1 Trimmed Mean CPI was 0.7% q/q, placing annual inflation within the RBA’s 2–3% target band. Combined with tariff-related risks, this has led futures markets to price in a 25bp RBA rate cut in May.

Performance

The Paradice Australian Equities Fund was down 143bps net of fees vs the benchmark. Top 3 contributors were Woodside Energy (not owned), with overweight positions in Coles and Newmont. Top 3 detractors were Commonwealth Bank (underweight), Alcoa and Treasury Wine Estates (both overweight).

Noteworthy industry / macro developments

#1 Downward EPS revisions in US are starting to emerge

US corporates are starting to withdraw guidance or downgrade earnings as weaker consumer and business confidence is manifesting into lower spending. A few prominent examples include:

  • Fast moving consumer goods – Procter & Gamble, Conagra Brands, Kraft Heinz adjusted volume outlook lower citing a volatile consumer environment.
  • Food services – McDonalds, Chipotle lowered sales growth guidance noting consumers are reducing restaurant visits.
  • Air travel – e.g. Delta Airlines, American Airlines, Southwest withdrew guidance for 2025 earnings due to macroeconomic uncertainty
  • Automotives – Ford, General Motors lowered or withdrew guidance citing tariff cost impost.
  • Payments – Block citing reduced gross profit outlook partly due to reduced consumer spending.

Some Australian corporates exposed to the US have also started to soften the outlook e.g. Reliance Worldwide Corporation, Flight Centre, Corporate Travel.

#2 Field trips to US and China

The team undertook field trips to the US and China during the month.

Meetings in Washington underscored the increasingly troubling state of the U.S. fiscal position.

The federal government is currently running an annual deficit of approximately US$2 trillion, driven by revenues of around US$5 trillion and expenditures near US$7 trillion. Of the total expenditure, only cUS$1 trillion encompasses some discretionary areas that may offer some scope for trimming. Trump, in collaboration with Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), initially targeted US$2 trillion in spending cuts. That goal was quickly revised down to US$1 trillion, and then again to US$450 billion. As of May 7, with most of the DOGE-led activity seemingly concluded, the initiative has publicly claimed US$165 billion in savings—representing only about 8% of the current deficit.

Looking ahead, the fiscal picture has another challenge. The U.S. has approximately US$36 trillion in total debt, with around US$9 trillion maturing in 2025. This debt currently carries an average interest rate of 3.35%, but if it were to be refinanced at the prevailing 5-year Treasury rate of 3.9%, the resulting increase in interest costs would be roughly US$50 billion—effectively eliminating nearly one-third of the DOGE-reported savings.

This precarious fiscal outlook poses growing risks to the U.S. dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency, providing further support for gold and our positions in Newmont and Northern Star.

Our trip to China suggests sentiment has improved post-stimulus despite geopolitical uncertainties. The government is shifting subsidies from traditional sectors to high-tech and green industries, while tightening control over private firms and prioritising employment at the expense of productivity. Consumers are trading down in luxury, favouring sportswear and mid-range Penfolds, while high-end malls struggle. Domestic travel is booming, and younger people are returning to smaller cities, boosting local growth. Property shows strength in Tier-1 and select Tier-2 cities, but lower-tier markets remain weak. EV sales have remained strong, led by low-end demand and rising premiumisation, with BYD expecting market consolidation.

Disclaimer:

This material is prepared by Paradice Investment Management Pty Ltd (ABN 64 090 148 619 AFSL No 224158) (Paradice, we or us) to provide you with general information only. It is not intended to take the place of professional advice and you should not take action on specific issues in reliance on this information.

This material is not intended to constitute advertising or advice (including investment advice or security, market or sector recommendations) of any kind. In addition, this material represents only the views of the Paradice Australian Equities team as at the time of release and is not intended, and may not, represent the views of Paradice or any of the other investment teams at Paradice.

Equity Trustees Limited (ABN 46 004 031 298, AFSL No. 240975) (Equity Trustees) is the responsible entity of, and issuer of units in, the Paradice Australian Equities Fund (Fund). Equity Trustees is a subsidiary of EQT Holdings Limited (ABN 22 607 797 615), a publicly listed company on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX:EQT). 

It may contain certain forward looking statements, opinions and projections that are based on the assumptions and judgments of Paradice with respect to, among other things, future economic, competitive and market conditions and future business decisions, all of which are difficult or impossible to predict accurately and many of which are beyond the control of Paradice. Because of the significant uncertainties inherent in these assumptions, opinions and judgments, you should not place undue reliance on these forward looking statements. For the avoidance of doubt, any such forward looking statements, opinions, assumptions and/or judgments made by Paradice may not prove to be accurate or correct. You should perform your own research and due diligence, consult your own financial, legal, and tax advisors before making any investment decision with respect to transacting in any securities covered herein. Specific securities identified herein are not representative of all securities purchased, sold, or recommended by the Fund previously or in the future. Following publication of this material, the investment teams at Paradice may transact or continue to transact in any of the securities covered herein, and may be positive, negative or neutral at any time hereafter regardless of our initial conclusions, or opinions.

The content of this publication is current as at the date of its publication and is subject to change at any time. It does not reflect any events or changes in circumstances occurring after the date of publication. 

You should consider your own needs and objectives and consult with a licensed financial adviser when deciding whether the Fund is suitable for you. Past performance should not be taken as an indicator of future performance. You should also read the current Product Disclosure Statement before making a decision about whether to invest in this product and the Target Market Determination available at www.paradice.com . A Target Market Determination is a document which describes who this financial product is likely to be appropriate for (i.e. the target market), and any conditions around how the product can be distributed to investors. This material is not to be copied, reproduced or published at any time without the prior written consent of Paradice. Neither Paradice, Equity Trustees, nor any of their respective related parties, directors or employees, make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, completeness, reasonableness or reliability of the information contained in this publication or accept liability or responsibility for any losses, whether direct, indirect or consequential, relating to, or arising from, the use or reliance on any part of this material. 

Copyright© 2025 Paradice

Paradice Australian Equities Fund March 2025 Commentary

 March, 2025

Monthly Commentary

Paradice Australian Equities Team

Paradice Australian Equities Fund March 2025 Commentary

Market Review

The S&P 500 Total Return Index and Nasdaq Total Return Index fell 4.3% and 10.3% (in USD) respectively on 1) global growth uncertainty as the Trump administration began implementing significant tariffs on key trading partners, and 2) the emergence of DeepSeek triggered growing concerns around US hyperscalers’ substantial data centre build outs. 

The S&P/ASX 200 Total Return Index weakened 2.8%. Information Technology dropped 17.5% as WiseTech fell on governance issues. Healthcare eased 9.1% as CSL’s February result missed expectations. REITS weakened 6.8% as Goodman fell post a $4b capital raise and growing concerns around capex intensity of data centre builds. Financials fell by 2.6% and NAB fell on a higher-than-expected loan loss charge at 14bp vs peers at around 5bp in its quarterly. There were good results elsewhere from other Financials in February, including QBE and Computershare. Utilities, Staples, and Telecoms outperformed the market due to relatively more stable results in February. Materials rose 0.7%, aided by strong performance from gold companies. James Hardie dropped 23.2% on the back of the Azek acquisition. Industrials performed best, rising 2.6%, due to good results in February from the likes of BlueScope Steel, SGH, and Brambles.

The Bloomberg Commodities index rose 8.9% (in USD). Gold leapt 19.0% as a safety trade against economic uncertainty and on central bank demand, and Copper followed, rising 11.1% (both in USD). Iron Ore, Brent Oil and the Lithium spectrum were relatively stable.

Uncertainty around President Trump’s tariff policy began to emerge in weakening confidence and consumer spending data, as well as a higher Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index. The US Federal Reserve maintained rates and in March emphasised a more cautious approach as it awaits further clarity surrounding announced tariffs. The futures were pricing ~90bp of cuts by 2025 year-end as at 31 March, which increased over the quarter from 60bp.

 In Australia, the monthly Consumer Price Inflation (Trimmed to exclude the volatiles of travel and ‘government subsidised’ electricity) was 2.7% in February, which is flat versus December, and gave the RBA comfort to ease the cash rate 25bp in February. The futures as at 31 March assumed another 50bp of cuts in by year-end, which is broadly similar to December.

Performance

The portfolio outperformed by 30bp over the quarter.

Contributors/Detractors

Key contributors include:

  • Newmont (NEM) – Overweight – Newmont advanced on a higher gold price.
  • QBE Insurance (QBE) – Overweight – QBE rose on strong earnings and an improved outlook due to better North American profitability.
  • Goodman (GMG) – Underweight – Goodman dropped following a $4b capital raising and uncertainty around economics of data centre builds.
  • a2 Milk (A2M) – Overweight – a2 Milk jumped on a strong earnings result as it continued to take market share in China.
  • WiseTech (WTC) – Underweight – WiseTech fell on governance issues including board exodus and an earnings downgrade.

Key detractors include:

  • Block (XYZ) – Overweight – Block fell after earnings missed expectations on weaker consumer spending trends and a lower margin. The impact Trump’s tariffs may have on consumer spending also weighed on sentiment.
  • Alcoa (AAI) – Overweight – Alcoa dropped after Trump announced tariffs on Canada, and on expectation of slower economic activity in the US leading to reduced aluminium demand.
  • Treasury Wine (TWE) – Overweight – Treasury weakened after earnings missed on softening US wine demand. The impact Trump’s tariffs may have on consumer spending also weighed on sentiment.
  • Evolution Mining (EVN) – Underweight – Evolution leapt on the higher gold price.
  • Commonwealth Bank (CBA) – Underweight – CBA outperformed modestly as its Net Interest Margin (NIM) held up better than peers.

Portfolio Changes

Purchases

  • Telstra (TLS) – Telstra was purchased on steady earnings and potential for capital management.
  • Coles (COL) – Coles was purchased on solid supermarket sales and execution.
  • Vicinity (VCX) – Vicinity was increased as retail rents remain resilient and pending completion of redevelopments provide a tangible pathway to growth.
  • Newmont (NEM) – Newmont was increased on a more positive outlook for the gold price.
  • Sigma Healthcare (SIG) – Sigma was bought post a strong trading update showing evidence of margin expansion.

Sales

  • Macquarie Group (MQG) – Macquarie was reduced on deteriorating earnings outlook, as policy uncertainty likely weigh on investment decisions and realisations.
  • Block (XYZ) – The Block overweight was reduced post the earnings miss, deteriorating consumer outlook and reducing portfolio beta.
  • Aristocrat (ALL) – Aristocrat was reduced following growth concerns due to deteriorating consumer outlook.
  • Alcoa (AAI) – Alcoa was reduced on concerns Trump’s tariffs will impact its earnings potential directly through the tariffs on its Canadian output, and indirectly through weaker aluminium demand.
  • Brambles (BXB) – Brambles was trimmed post recent outperformance.

 

Environmental, Social, Governance Issues (ESG) – Engagement

During the quarter we undertook a total of 28 engagements in which we discussed ESG matters, with 18 companies relevant to the strategy. As reporting season occurred during the quarter, most meetings were held with either the CEO or CFO, with some also held with the Chair. The engagements covered a range of issues and most covered multiple ESG matters. In addition to climate change, human capital management and governance issues were notable topics of interest for the team.    

We held multiple engagements with Santos (STO) as well as visited the recently commissioned Moomba carbon capture and storage (CCS) project in South Australia. With its second Climate Transition Action Plan being put to vote at the upcoming AGM, a key focus was Santos’ climate response. The commissioning of Moomba CCS is a big milestone, a first step in proving up the company’s plan to develop a carbon storage management business. We also engaged on reducing operational emissions and enhancing aspects of its climate disclosures.

We also met with South32 (S32), continuing our ongoing engagement on its prospects of securing long term green energy supply essential for the viability of its Hillside and Mozal assets in Africa and for which the company is seeking to work with the South African and Mozambique governments. Beyond decarbonisation, we also discussed environmental approvals at Worsley (WA), managing civil unrest and strikes in Mozambique, and navigating an aging workforce in some parts of the business which has implications as experienced workers retire. Finally, we covered some of the environmental challenges in restarting GEMCO operations as there are large volumes of wastewater to appropriately manage.

Outlook and Positioning

Rolling uncertainty around Trump’s tariff intentions and implementations have given way to a significant pause in corporate investment decisions and a weakening consumer backdrop. The case for stagflation in US is building as much higher than anticipated tariffs attempt to unwind decades of globalisation and efficient trade. US tariffs are set to rise to 10-25% on average, with specific levies as high as 54% against China. This marks the largest tariff increase since World War II, reversing decades of declining rates since 1932. Historically, global tariff rates have averaged around 2-3%. If implemented, these tariffs represent a significant structural shift in modern trade policy, disrupting global supply chains and reducing US (and possibly global) GDP. Although some may be negotiated away, the probability of a significant reduction appears low given Trump’s rhetoric. Retaliatory tariffs are likely, further flaming a global trade war. For example, China has promptly announced a 34% tariff on all US imports and restrictions on exports of rare earths.

The purported tax raised from tariffs are estimated to be up to US$600-900b pa, which could in theory fund tax cuts. However, this is likely to be significantly offset by retaliatory tariffs and demand weakness. Economists from JP Morgan forecast the cost to US consumers at ~US$600b or ~2 percent of US GDP. Higher inflation may also make it more difficult for the FED to cut rates despite slower growth. The market’s current 20.0x December 2025 Price/Earnings ratio, therefore looks expensive, making the market performance outlook skewed to the downside (as at US close 3 April).

The Australian direct impact from Trump’s tariffs may be relatively modest, given the 10% rate and beef being a focus. The indirect impact via the ~85% of our export goods that go into Asian countries, which are facing a higher tariff is a tougher issue. Australia is also in an enviable position with capacity for government fiscal and RBA monetary stimulus if necessary.

The portfolio is increasingly positioned defensively, with a reduction in global and US exposed companies, and an increase in domestic, defensive names that are more insulated from tariff regimes. The falling USD (typically an embodiment of safe-haven) suggests increased worries about the credibility of US economic policies and possibly the long-term stability of the dollar as a global reserve currency.

The portfolio is overweight Materials, principally due to an overweight in Gold companies including Newmont. Gold is favoured as a store of value against both inflation and crisis, and a beneficiary of central bank buying.

Financials are underweight, via Banks. Banks have re-rated to 35-year valuation highs yet have minimal growth outside one-off lower loan losses. The portfolio is overweight insurers QBE and IAG as they benefit from an ongoing insurance hardening pricing cycle.

The portfolio is positioned in selective Industrial stocks with growing earnings and attractive valuation. These include Brambles as it continues to grow earnings and generate free cashflow, and SGH where earnings are supported by a sustained equipment replacement cycle.

Within the Consumer sectors, the portfolio is overweight Staples through Coles, Sigma, A2 Milk and Treasury Wine. In our view, Coles is executing admirably with a focus on consumer value, Sigma continues to take share and deliver on margin expansion. A2 Milk is executing commendably in a tough Chinese market and Treasury Wines is attractively priced on its Penfolds growth, albeit the US portfolio is deteriorating.

The portfolio is modestly overweight Healthcare via ResMed and Ansell. ResMed continues to deliver strong earnings with no signs of a GLP1 induced slowdown, and Ansell is delivering on improved growth and margins post a Covid-induced destocking cycle. Ansell is impacted by the recently announced tariff regime given most of its manufacturing is in South East Asia (avg tariff at c30%), however the lack of US competitors provide it with ample price pass through capacity.

The portfolio is overweight Telstra and has increased its weight in Real Estate through Vicinity and Stockland. Telstra is demonstrating resilient earnings, and an improved balance sheet provides capacity for buyback. Vicinity and Stockland are providing a good balance of dividend yield and growth, which are less dependent on RBA rate cuts (albeit helpful).

Noteworthy industry / macro developments

#1 Field trips to Europe and US

The team visited Europe and US taking a pulse on US corporate activity, as well as specific meetings around the MQG investor trip, and ASX-listed financials and data centres.

Overall, consumer and corporate uncertainty ramped up towards the end of February in relation to tariff and DOGE-induced uncertainty. Corporates were generally supportive of tariff related logic but not the method or communication. It would take years to re-shore in USA and this would require certainty from multiple administrations (subsequent to Trump). The outlook for Europe appeared incrementally more positive post successive rate cuts and the German infrastructure stimulus. Energy transition in Europe appear too advanced to be impacted by announced policy changes to date.

Please reach out to distribution@paradice.com for further insights from the field trip.

#2 Central bank’s structural shift in reserve management

Central banks have been diversifying away from US treasuries and increasing buying of gold for the last 3-5 years, potentially undermining its value and safe-haven status. Whilst it is challenging to estimate future behaviour, Emerging Markets central banks could still support Gold for the next 3-6 years to reach similar exposures as Developed Markets, as highlighted by the following chart from Goldman Sachs (dated 26 Mar 2025).

#3 Proposed tariffs and early US indicators

President Trump introduced a new baseline 10% US tariff on goods from all economies and higher than anticipated tariffs for some of US’ largest trading partners. The newly announced 34% tariff against China comes on top of previously announced 20% tariff, bringing the total tariff rate to 54%. Mexico and Canada continue to face a general 25% tariff, albeit the tariff rate is lower for specific Canadian energy products (10%) and there are exemptions under the original USMCA agreement.

Following chart -> The full list of proposed US tariffs

Recent data from US already suggest increasing concerns about US household financial stress and sticky inflation. Consumer spending was weaker than expected in February, while the key inflation metric (PCE) picked up, giving way to increased likelihood of stagflation.

For further details on fund positioning please refer to the Paradice Australian Equities Quarterly Fact Sheet.

Disclaimer:

This material is prepared by Paradice Investment Management Pty Ltd (ABN 64 090 148 619 AFSL No 224158) (Paradice, we or us) to provide you with general information only. It is not intended to take the place of professional advice and you should not take action on specific issues in reliance on this information.

This material is not intended to constitute advertising or advice (including investment advice or security, market or sector recommendations) of any kind. In addition, this material represents only the views of the Paradice Australian Equities team as at the time of release and is not intended, and may not, represent the views of Paradice or any of the other investment teams at Paradice.

Equity Trustees Limited (ABN 46 004 031 298, AFSL No. 240975) (Equity Trustees) is the responsible entity of, and issuer of units in, the Paradice Australian Equities Fund (Fund). Equity Trustees is a subsidiary of EQT Holdings Limited (ABN 22 607 797 615), a publicly listed company on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX:EQT). 

It may contain certain forward looking statements, opinions and projections that are based on the assumptions and judgments of Paradice with respect to, among other things, future economic, competitive and market conditions and future business decisions, all of which are difficult or impossible to predict accurately and many of which are beyond the control of Paradice. Because of the significant uncertainties inherent in these assumptions, opinions and judgments, you should not place undue reliance on these forward looking statements. For the avoidance of doubt, any such forward looking statements, opinions, assumptions and/or judgments made by Paradice may not prove to be accurate or correct. You should perform your own research and due diligence, consult your own financial, legal, and tax advisors before making any investment decision with respect to transacting in any securities covered herein. Specific securities identified herein are not representative of all securities purchased, sold, or recommended by the Fund previously or in the future. Following publication of this material, the investment teams at Paradice may transact or continue to transact in any of the securities covered herein, and may be positive, negative or neutral at any time hereafter regardless of our initial conclusions, or opinions.

The content of this publication is current as at the date of its publication and is subject to change at any time. It does not reflect any events or changes in circumstances occurring after the date of publication. 

You should consider your own needs and objectives and consult with a licensed financial adviser when deciding whether the Fund is suitable for you. Past performance should not be taken as an indicator of future performance. You should also read the current Product Disclosure Statement before making a decision about whether to invest in this product and the Target Market Determination available at www.paradice.com . A Target Market Determination is a document which describes who this financial product is likely to be appropriate for (i.e. the target market), and any conditions around how the product can be distributed to investors. This material is not to be copied, reproduced or published at any time without the prior written consent of Paradice. Neither Paradice, Equity Trustees, nor any of their respective related parties, directors or employees, make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, completeness, reasonableness or reliability of the information contained in this publication or accept liability or responsibility for any losses, whether direct, indirect or consequential, relating to, or arising from, the use or reliance on any part of this material. 

Copyright© 2025 Paradice

Post Reporting Season Wrap

19th March, 2025

Reporting Season Wrap

Paradice Portfolio Managers offer their perspectives on the recent reporting season

Disclaimer:

This material is prepared by Paradice Investment Management Pty Ltd (ABN 64 090 148 619, AFSL No. 224158) (Paradice, we or us) to provide you with general information only. This material (or contribution to it) is not intended to constitute advertising or advice (including legal, tax or investment advice or security recommendation) of any kind.  It is not intended to take the place of professional advice and you should not take action on specific issues in reliance on this information. 

Equity Trustees Limited (ABN 46 004 031 298, AFSL No. 240975) (Equity Trustees) is the responsible entity of, and issuer of units in, the Paradice Funds (Fund(s)). Equity Trustees is a subsidiary of EQT Holdings Limited (ABN 22 607 797 615), a publicly listed company on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX:EQT).  In deciding whether to acquire, or to continue to hold, units in the Funds please read the current product disclosure statement which is available by visitingwww.paradice.com and the Target Market Determination (TMD) which is available at www.paradice.com/au/investor-centre/. A TMD describes who this financial product is likely to be appropriate for (i.e. the target market), and any conditions around how the product can be distributed to investors. 

Past performance of the Funds is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of an investment in the Funds may rise or fall. Returns are not guaranteed by any person.  Paradice may have a relevant interest, in their capacity as investment manager, in the securities mentioned in this interview. In addition, this material represents only the views of each specific investment team as at the time of release and is not intended, and may not, represent the views of Paradice or any of the other investment teams at Paradice. 

This material may contain certain forward looking statements, opinions and projections that are based on the assumptions and judgments of Paradice with respect to, among other things, future economic, competitive and market conditions and future business decisions, all of which are difficult or impossible to predict accurately and many of which are beyond the control of Paradice. Because of the significant uncertainties inherent in these assumptions and judgments, you should not place undue reliance on these forward looking statements, nor should you regard the inclusion of these statements as a representation by Paradice that the strategy objectives will be achieved. For the avoidance of doubt, any such forward looking statements, opinions, assumptions and/or judgments made by Paradice may not prove to be accurate or correct. The information and opinions contained in this material have been and any third party data contained herein is obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but neither Paradice, nor any of its related parties, directors or employees make any representations or guarantees with regard to the accuracy of such data. The content of this publication is current as at the date of its publication and is subject to change at any time. It does not reflect any events or changes in circumstances occurring after the date of publication.

This material is not to be copied, reproduced or published at any time without the prior written consent of Paradice. Neither Paradice, Equity Trustees, nor any of their respective related parties, directors or employees, make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, completeness, reasonableness or reliability of the information contained in this publication or accept liability or responsibility for any losses, whether direct, indirect or consequential, relating to, or arising from, the use or reliance on any part of this material. 

PIM

Contributors:

Jovana Gagic

Tom Richardson

Julia Weng

Sam Theodore

Report: Observations from Paris Trip

 September, 2024

Report: Observations from Paris Trip

Paradice Global Equities Team

 

In September, Toby Shute, an analyst on the Global equities team, attended a pan-European equities conference hosted by Kepler Cheuvreux in Paris. He participated in 17 group and one-on-one company meetings over the course of three days. This provided a good opportunity to check in with firms that the Global team either owns or has studied in the past, in addition to meeting several others for the first time. The conference setting also provided an opportunity to compare notes and trade war stories with other Global and European-specialist investors.

Read the report here.

Disclaimer:

Not for onward distribution.
This material is prepared by Paradice Investment Management Pty Ltd (ABN 64 090 148 619 AFSL No 224158) (Paradice, we or us). This material is not intended to constitute advertising or advice (including investment advice or security, market or sector recommendations) of any kind. In addition, this material represents only the views of the Paradice Global Equities team as at the time of release and is not intended, and may not, represent the views of Paradice or any of the other investment teams at Paradice. It does not reflect any events or changes in circumstances occurring after the date of publication.
It may contain certain forward looking statements, opinions and projections that are based on the assumptions and judgments of Paradice with respect to, among other things, future economic, competitive and market conditions and future business decisions, all of which are difficult or impossible to predict accurately and many of which are beyond the control of Paradice. Because of the significant uncertainties inherent in these assumptions, opinions and judgments, you should not place undue reliance on these forward looking statements. For the avoidance of doubt, any such forward looking statements, opinions, assumptions and/or judgments made by Paradice may not prove to be accurate or correct. You should perform your own research and due diligence, consult your own financial, legal, and tax advisors before making any investment decision with respect to transacting in any securities covered herein. Following publication of this material, the investment teams at Paradice may transact or continue to transact in any of the securities covered herein, and may be positive, negative or neutral at any time hereafter regardless of our initial conclusions, or opinions.
This material is not to be copied, reproduced or published at any time without the prior written consent of Paradice. Paradice or any of their respective related parties, directors or employees, make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, completeness, reasonableness or reliability of the information contained in this publication or accept liability or responsibility for any losses, whether direct, indirect or consequential, relating to, or arising from, the use or reliance on any part of this material.
The information and opinions contained herein, including information obtained from third party sources which are considered to be reliable, are not necessarily all inclusive and, as such, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of any assumption contained herein and no responsibility arising for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Paradice, its officers, employees or agents.
Copyright© 2024 Paradice

Contributors:

Toby Shute

Further Information

Report: Observations from China and USA Trip – Paradice Australian Equities Strategy

 October, 2024

Report: Observations from China and USA Trip

Paradice Australian Equities Strategy

Recently David Feng, a portfolio manager/analyst from the Australian equities team, undertook a three-week trip to China and the US. Below is an update on the local economy and a view of in-trend topics from those locations. The trip comprised of company visits, interviews with industry contacts and experts, meetings with sector analysts, and conferences with participants from both listed and unlisted companies.

Read the report here.

Disclaimer:

This material is prepared by Paradice Investment Management Pty Ltd (ABN 64 090 148 619 AFSL No 224158) (Paradice, we or us).
This material is not intended to constitute advertising or advice (including investment advice or security, market or sector recommendations) of any kind. In addition, this material represents only the views of the Paradice Australian Equities team as at the time of release and is not intended, and may not, represent the views of Paradice or any of the other investment teams at Paradice. It does not reflect any events or changes in circumstances occurring after the date of publication.
It may contain certain forward looking statements, opinions and projections that are based on the assumptions and judgments of Paradice with respect to, among other things, future economic, competitive and market conditions and future business decisions, all of which are difficult or impossible to predict accurately and many of which are beyond the control of Paradice. Because of the significant uncertainties inherent in these assumptions, opinions and judgments, you should not place undue reliance on these forward looking statements. For the avoidance of doubt, any such forward looking statements, opinions, assumptions and/or judgments made by Paradice may not prove to be accurate or correct. You should perform your own research and due diligence, consult your own financial, legal, and tax advisors before making any investment decision with respect to transacting in any securities covered herein. Following publication of this material, the investment teams at Paradice may transact or continue to transact in any of the securities covered herein, and may be positive, negative or neutral at any time hereafter regardless of our initial conclusions, or opinions.
This material is not to be copied, reproduced or published at any time without the prior written consent of Paradice. Paradice or any of their respective related parties, directors or employees, make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, completeness, reasonableness or reliability of the information contained in this publication or accept liability or responsibility for any losses, whether direct, indirect or consequential, relating to, or arising from, the use or reliance on any part of this material.
The information and opinions contained herein, including information obtained from third party sources which are considered to be reliable, are not necessarily all inclusive and, as such, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of any assumption contained herein and no responsibility arising for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Paradice, its officers, employees or agents.

Contributors:

David Feng

Further Information

Report: Is there an opportunity to invest in Australian Small Caps now?

 August, 2024

Report: Is there an opportunity to invest in Australian Small Caps now?

Paradice Australian Small Cap Opportunities Fund

 
This thought piece discusses what we are seeing in the small cap space in the US and whether this suggests that there are opportunities within the Australian small cap market.

Are US small cap stocks setting the scene?

There has been a lot of commentary and media recently talking about the great rotation currently underway globally out of large caps and into small caps.

Below is a chart of the Russell 2000 (blue line; representing US Small Caps) vs the S&P 500 (white line; US Large Caps) over the last month, which illustrates close to a 10% performance difference between the two indices.

(Source: Internal, Bloomberg, as at 1 August 2024)

Why might this rotation be happening and what does it mean in an Australian context? 

  • In our view, AI is an expense at the moment rather than a revenue generator. This goes to the cost of building out the infrastructure for AI and the lag as capacity fills up before returns come.
  • Concentration risk may be playing out. The 10 largest stocks by market capitalisation in the S&P 500 accounted for 27% of the index at the end of 2023, nearly double the 14% share of a decade earlier (source: Morgan Stanley). This has increased to 37% in 2024 according to FactSet data, with the Magnificent Seven making up 31% of the index. That rate of increase in concentration is the most rapid since 1950, according to Morgan Stanley. In our view the Magnificent Seven will have to keep positively surprising on earnings to maintain that momentum.[1]  
  • The rotation began after the June 2024 CPI. In our view, this will get stronger when interest rate cuts begin to materialise and the move in US small caps over the last month suggests conviction on the rotation growing, a trajectory which could play out similarly in an Australian context as outlined below.

Interestingly, in Australia, we have not yet seen this play out at the index level – with Small Caps (the blue line in the chart below) only slightly ahead vs the ASX100 over the last month. 

 (Source: Internal, as at 1st August 2024)

There are probably a number of reasons why this might be the case, but typically what we are seeing transpire in the US could follow here with a lag, depending somewhat on the local interest rate cycle.

And if we do see a catch up here in Australia, the scale is likely to be quite big – given the level of underperformance we have seen over the past 3 years:

 (Source: Internal to Paradice, as at 31 July 2024)

Paradice Australian Small Cap Opportunities Fund (“SCOF” or “the Fund”) turned one on 20 July 2024

Why consider an investment in SCOF?

  1. Fund Performance: SCOF has performed strongly in its first 12 months; delivering 29.99% total return, 20.70% above benchmark return of 9.29% (being the S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries Total Return Index. Refer also to table below).[2]
  2. Investment Philosophy/Process: SCOF employs a similar process to the original Paradice Small Cap Fund founded in 2000; which has delivered >14% p.a. total return over this time.[3]
  3. Fund Size: SCOF has a relatively small FUM allowing it to be nimble, take advantage of mispricing while focusing on capital preservation and compounding returns.
  4. Boutique Structure: As a Paradice product, SCOF is able to leverage off the wider Paradice network.
  5. The Australian Small Cap Index[4] has materially underperformed Large Caps[5] by c.25% since interest rates started rising in early 2022. With rates close to a peak; and early signs of a small cap re-rate occurring in the US; now is a good time consider investing in Australian Small Caps in our view.     

1) Fund Performance:

SCOF celebrated its one year anniversary on 20 July 2024.

For the year to 31 July 2024 the Fund delivered a c30% total return before tax, after ongoing management costs and accrued performance fees.

Details below:

31 July 2024

Past performance of the Fund is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of an investment in the Fund may rise or fall. Returns are not guaranteed by any person. Fund returns are calculated before tax, after ongoing management costs and any accrued performance fees (unless waived). Returns greater than 1 year are annualised.

2) Investment philosophy/process:

As at 30 June 2024, the existing Australian Small Cap Fund has returned 14.9% total gross return and 9.34% alpha per annum over 24 years.[3]

SCOF implements a similar investment philosophy to that implemented successfully by the other Paradice Funds – including the existing Australian Small Cap Fund.

3) Fund size:

SCOF is a capacity constraint product – we will limit FUM to maximise alpha generation.

Further we are at the early stage of SCOF’s life cycle, which has obvious benefits:

– increased nimbleness to trade in and out of stocks; and

– broader investment opportunities.

4) Boutique structure supported by the wider Paradice business:

The investment team behind SCOF are co-investors in the Fund alongside our clients, which creates strong alignment. SCOF can also leverage the wider Paradice funds management network. 

5) Time for Australian small caps? 

With the Australian Small Cap Index near 15-year lows; and the early stages of a potential re-rate underway in US Small Caps; now could be an opportune time to invest in Australian Small Caps. 

[1] Source: How Magnificent 7 affects S&P 500 stock market concentration (cnbc.com))
[2] Past performance of the Fund is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of an investment in the Fund may rise or fall. Returns are not guaranteed by any person. Fund returns are calculated before tax, after ongoing management costs and any accrued performance fees (unless waived). Returns greater than 1 year are annualised.
[3]Returns presented on a “gross” basis do not reflect any management fees, and other potential expenses to be borne by the investors. The Australian Small Cap Fund is managed by a separate investment team and is distinct from the Australian Small Cap Opportunities Fund. 
[4] The S&P/ASX Australian Small Industrials Index. 
[5]The S&P/ASX Australian All Ordinaries Index. 

Disclaimer:

This material is prepared by Paradice Investment Management Pty Ltd (ABN 64 090 148 619 AFSL No 224158) (Paradice, we or us).

This material is not intended to constitute advertising or advice (including investment advice or security, market or sector recommendations) of any kind. In addition, this material represents only the views of the Paradice Australian Small Cap Opportunities team as at the time of release and is not intended, and may not, represent the views of Paradice or any of the other investment teams at Paradice.

Equity Trustees Limited (ABN 46 004 031 298, AFSL No. 240975) (Equity Trustees) is the responsible entity of, and issuer of units in, the Paradice Australian Small Cap Opportunities Fund (Fund). Equity Trustees is a subsidiary of EQT Holdings Limited (ABN 22 607 797 615), a publicly listed company on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX:EQT). 

It may contain certain forward looking statements, opinions and projections that are based on the assumptions and judgments of Paradice with respect to, among other things, future economic, competitive and market conditions and future business decisions, all of which are difficult or impossible to predict accurately and many of which are beyond the control of Paradice. Because of the significant uncertainties inherent in these assumptions, opinions and judgments, you should not place undue reliance on these forward looking statements. For the avoidance of doubt, any such forward looking statements, opinions, assumptions and/or judgments made by Paradice may not prove to be accurate or correct. You should perform your own research and due diligence, consult your own financial, legal, and tax advisors before making any investment decision with respect to transacting in any securities covered herein. Specific securities identified herein are not representative of all securities purchased, sold, or recommended by the Fund previously or in the future. Following publication of this material, the investment teams at Paradice may transact or continue to transact in any of the securities covered herein, and may be positive, negative or neutral at any time hereafter regardless of our initial conclusions, or opinions.

The content of this publication is current as at the date of its publication and is subject to change at any time. It does not reflect any events or changes in circumstances occurring after the date of publication. 

You should consider your own needs and objectives and consult with a licensed financial adviser when deciding whether a Paradice Fund is suitable for you. You should also read the current Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination available at www.paradice.com. A Target Market Determination is a document which is required to be made available by 5 October 2021. It will describe who this financial product is likely to be appropriate for (i.e. the target market), and any conditions around how the product can be distributed to investors. It will also describe the events or circumstances where the Target Market Determination for this financial product may need to be reviewed. 

This material is not to be copied, reproduced or published at any time without the prior written consent of Paradice. Neither Paradice, Equity Trustees, nor any of their respective related parties, directors or employees, make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, completeness, reasonableness or reliability of the information contained in this publication or accept liability or responsibility for any losses, whether direct, indirect or consequential, relating to, or arising from, the use or reliance on any part of this material. 

The information and opinions contained herein, including information obtained from third party sources which are considered to be reliable, are not necessarily all inclusive and, as such, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of any assumption contained herein and no responsibility arising for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Paradice, its officers, employees or agents.

Equity Trustees nor any of its related parties, their employees or directors, provide and warranty of accuracy or reliability in relation to such information or accepts any liability to any person who relies on it

Copyright© 2024 Paradice

Contributors:

Sam Theodore

Head of the Australian Small Cap Opportunities Fund

Michael Peet

Portfolio Manager of the Australian Small Cap Opportunities Fund

Julia Weng Speaks to Ausbiz about Rate Hikes and Market Spikes

Julia Weng Speaks to Ausbiz about Rate Hikes and Market Spikes

Portfolio Manager / Analyst from our Australian Equities team, Julia Weng, speaks to AusBiz about the potential RBA rate hikes, the Aussie dollar’s potential rebound and investment strategies.

Watch the video here.

Disclaimer:

This material (or any contribution to it) is not intended to constitute advertising or advice (including legal, tax or investment advice or security recommendation) of any kind.  It is of a general nature only and was current only at the time of initial publication. The information and opinions contained herein are not necessarily all-inclusive and, as such, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of any assumption contained herein and no responsibility arising for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Paradice, its officers, employees or agents.  It may contain certain forward looking statements, opinions and projections that are based on the assumptions and judgments of Paradice with respect to, among other things, future economic, competitive and market conditions and future business decisions, all of which are difficult or impossible to predict accurately and many of which are beyond the control of Paradice. Because of the significant uncertainties inherent in these assumptions, opinions and judgments, you should not place undue reliance on these forward looking statements. You should consider your own needs and objectives and consult with a licensed financial adviser. For the avoidance of doubt, any such forward looking statements, opinions, assumptions and/or judgments made by Paradice may not prove to be accurate or correct.  References to securities may or may not represent the holdings of the Paradice Funds.  The content of this publication is current as at the date of its publication and is subject to change at any time. It does not reflect any events or changes in circumstances occurring after the date of publication.

3 Preferred Materials Exposures and 1 Sector to Avoid

3 preferred materials exposures and 1 sector to avoid

In a normal cycle, high prices for commodities from high demand would lead to increased supply and finally a drop in prices – but these are far from normal times.

Tom Richardson, Lead Portfolio Manager of the Paradice Equity Alpha Plus Fund, factors like the energy transition, underinvestment in production and ongoing demand from China may see prices rise further, or at least stay higher for longer. He is the first to say this might be a dangerous view and investors should be selective about their commodities investments.

Disclaimer:

This publication is not intended to constitute advertising or advice (including investment advice or security, market or sector recommendations) of any kind. It may contain certain forward looking statements, opinions and projections that are based on the assumptions and judgments of Paradice with respect to, among other things, future economic, competitive and market conditions and future business decisions, all of which are difficult or impossible to predict accurately and many of which are beyond the control of Paradice. Because of the significant uncertainties inherent in these assumptions, opinions and judgments, you should not place undue reliance on these forward looking statements. Equity Trustees Limited (ABN 46 004 031 298, AFSL No. 240975) (Equity Trustees) is the responsible entity of, and issuer of units in, the Paradice Funds (Funds). Equity Trustees is a subsidiary of EQT Holdings Limited (ABN 22 607 797 615), a publicly listed company on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX:EQT). You should consider your own needs and objectives and consult with a licensed financial adviser when deciding whether a Paradice Fund is suitable for you. You should also read the current Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination available at www.paradice.com. References to securities may or may not represent the holdings of the Paradice Funds. For the avoidance of doubt, any such forward looking statements, opinions, assumptions and/or judgments made by Paradice may not prove to be accurate or correct. The content of this publication is current as at the date of its publication and is subject to change at any time. It does not reflect any events or changes in circumstances occurring after the date of publication.

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