Author Archives: Kathryn Wenborn

Report: Is there an opportunity to invest in Australian Small Caps now?

 August, 2024

Report: Is there an opportunity to invest in Australian Small Caps now?

Paradice Australian Small Cap Opportunities Fund

 
This thought piece discusses what we are seeing in the small cap space in the US and whether this suggests that there are opportunities within the Australian small cap market.

Are US small cap stocks setting the scene?

There has been a lot of commentary and media recently talking about the great rotation currently underway globally out of large caps and into small caps.

Below is a chart of the Russell 2000 (blue line; representing US Small Caps) vs the S&P 500 (white line; US Large Caps) over the last month, which illustrates close to a 10% performance difference between the two indices.

(Source: Internal, Bloomberg, as at 1 August 2024)

Why might this rotation be happening and what does it mean in an Australian context? 

  • In our view, AI is an expense at the moment rather than a revenue generator. This goes to the cost of building out the infrastructure for AI and the lag as capacity fills up before returns come.
  • Concentration risk may be playing out. The 10 largest stocks by market capitalisation in the S&P 500 accounted for 27% of the index at the end of 2023, nearly double the 14% share of a decade earlier (source: Morgan Stanley). This has increased to 37% in 2024 according to FactSet data, with the Magnificent Seven making up 31% of the index. That rate of increase in concentration is the most rapid since 1950, according to Morgan Stanley. In our view the Magnificent Seven will have to keep positively surprising on earnings to maintain that momentum.[1]  
  • The rotation began after the June 2024 CPI. In our view, this will get stronger when interest rate cuts begin to materialise and the move in US small caps over the last month suggests conviction on the rotation growing, a trajectory which could play out similarly in an Australian context as outlined below.

Interestingly, in Australia, we have not yet seen this play out at the index level – with Small Caps (the blue line in the chart below) only slightly ahead vs the ASX100 over the last month. 

 (Source: Internal, as at 1st August 2024)

There are probably a number of reasons why this might be the case, but typically what we are seeing transpire in the US could follow here with a lag, depending somewhat on the local interest rate cycle.

And if we do see a catch up here in Australia, the scale is likely to be quite big – given the level of underperformance we have seen over the past 3 years:

 (Source: Internal to Paradice, as at 31 July 2024)

Paradice Australian Small Cap Opportunities Fund (“SCOF” or “the Fund”) turned one on 20 July 2024

Why consider an investment in SCOF?

  1. Fund Performance: SCOF has performed strongly in its first 12 months; delivering 29.99% total return, 20.70% above benchmark return of 9.29% (being the S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries Total Return Index. Refer also to table below).[2]
  2. Investment Philosophy/Process: SCOF employs a similar process to the original Paradice Small Cap Fund founded in 2000; which has delivered >14% p.a. total return over this time.[3]
  3. Fund Size: SCOF has a relatively small FUM allowing it to be nimble, take advantage of mispricing while focusing on capital preservation and compounding returns.
  4. Boutique Structure: As a Paradice product, SCOF is able to leverage off the wider Paradice network.
  5. The Australian Small Cap Index[4] has materially underperformed Large Caps[5] by c.25% since interest rates started rising in early 2022. With rates close to a peak; and early signs of a small cap re-rate occurring in the US; now is a good time consider investing in Australian Small Caps in our view.     

1) Fund Performance:

SCOF celebrated its one year anniversary on 20 July 2024.

For the year to 31 July 2024 the Fund delivered a c30% total return before tax, after ongoing management costs and accrued performance fees.

Details below:

31 July 2024

Past performance of the Fund is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of an investment in the Fund may rise or fall. Returns are not guaranteed by any person. Fund returns are calculated before tax, after ongoing management costs and any accrued performance fees (unless waived). Returns greater than 1 year are annualised.

2) Investment philosophy/process:

As at 30 June 2024, the existing Australian Small Cap Fund has returned 14.9% total gross return and 9.34% alpha per annum over 24 years.[3]

SCOF implements a similar investment philosophy to that implemented successfully by the other Paradice Funds – including the existing Australian Small Cap Fund.

3) Fund size:

SCOF is a capacity constraint product – we will limit FUM to maximise alpha generation.

Further we are at the early stage of SCOF’s life cycle, which has obvious benefits:

– increased nimbleness to trade in and out of stocks; and

– broader investment opportunities.

4) Boutique structure supported by the wider Paradice business:

The investment team behind SCOF are co-investors in the Fund alongside our clients, which creates strong alignment. SCOF can also leverage the wider Paradice funds management network. 

5) Time for Australian small caps? 

With the Australian Small Cap Index near 15-year lows; and the early stages of a potential re-rate underway in US Small Caps; now could be an opportune time to invest in Australian Small Caps. 

[1] Source: How Magnificent 7 affects S&P 500 stock market concentration (cnbc.com))
[2] Past performance of the Fund is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of an investment in the Fund may rise or fall. Returns are not guaranteed by any person. Fund returns are calculated before tax, after ongoing management costs and any accrued performance fees (unless waived). Returns greater than 1 year are annualised.
[3]Returns presented on a “gross” basis do not reflect any management fees, and other potential expenses to be borne by the investors. The Australian Small Cap Fund is managed by a separate investment team and is distinct from the Australian Small Cap Opportunities Fund. 
[4] The S&P/ASX Australian Small Industrials Index. 
[5]The S&P/ASX Australian All Ordinaries Index. 

Disclaimer:

This material is prepared by Paradice Investment Management Pty Ltd (ABN 64 090 148 619 AFSL No 224158) (Paradice, we or us).

This material is not intended to constitute advertising or advice (including investment advice or security, market or sector recommendations) of any kind. In addition, this material represents only the views of the Paradice Australian Small Cap Opportunities team as at the time of release and is not intended, and may not, represent the views of Paradice or any of the other investment teams at Paradice.

Equity Trustees Limited (ABN 46 004 031 298, AFSL No. 240975) (Equity Trustees) is the responsible entity of, and issuer of units in, the Paradice Australian Small Cap Opportunities Fund (Fund). Equity Trustees is a subsidiary of EQT Holdings Limited (ABN 22 607 797 615), a publicly listed company on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX:EQT). 

It may contain certain forward looking statements, opinions and projections that are based on the assumptions and judgments of Paradice with respect to, among other things, future economic, competitive and market conditions and future business decisions, all of which are difficult or impossible to predict accurately and many of which are beyond the control of Paradice. Because of the significant uncertainties inherent in these assumptions, opinions and judgments, you should not place undue reliance on these forward looking statements. For the avoidance of doubt, any such forward looking statements, opinions, assumptions and/or judgments made by Paradice may not prove to be accurate or correct. You should perform your own research and due diligence, consult your own financial, legal, and tax advisors before making any investment decision with respect to transacting in any securities covered herein. Specific securities identified herein are not representative of all securities purchased, sold, or recommended by the Fund previously or in the future. Following publication of this material, the investment teams at Paradice may transact or continue to transact in any of the securities covered herein, and may be positive, negative or neutral at any time hereafter regardless of our initial conclusions, or opinions.

The content of this publication is current as at the date of its publication and is subject to change at any time. It does not reflect any events or changes in circumstances occurring after the date of publication. 

You should consider your own needs and objectives and consult with a licensed financial adviser when deciding whether a Paradice Fund is suitable for you. You should also read the current Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination available at www.paradice.com. A Target Market Determination is a document which is required to be made available by 5 October 2021. It will describe who this financial product is likely to be appropriate for (i.e. the target market), and any conditions around how the product can be distributed to investors. It will also describe the events or circumstances where the Target Market Determination for this financial product may need to be reviewed. 

This material is not to be copied, reproduced or published at any time without the prior written consent of Paradice. Neither Paradice, Equity Trustees, nor any of their respective related parties, directors or employees, make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, completeness, reasonableness or reliability of the information contained in this publication or accept liability or responsibility for any losses, whether direct, indirect or consequential, relating to, or arising from, the use or reliance on any part of this material. 

The information and opinions contained herein, including information obtained from third party sources which are considered to be reliable, are not necessarily all inclusive and, as such, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of any assumption contained herein and no responsibility arising for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Paradice, its officers, employees or agents.

Equity Trustees nor any of its related parties, their employees or directors, provide and warranty of accuracy or reliability in relation to such information or accepts any liability to any person who relies on it

Copyright© 2024 Paradice

Contributors:

Sam Theodore

Head of the Australian Small Cap Opportunities Fund

Michael Peet

Portfolio Manager of the Australian Small Cap Opportunities Fund

How to play higher interest rates for longer in equities

 8th July, 2024

AFR: How to play higher interest rates for longer in equities

Our super funds made two things clear: rates are likely to be higher for longer and equities are back in fashion. We ask some stock pickers to name their calls.

Published in the Australian Financial Review on 8 July 2024. See the original article here.

Having done the rounds with super fund CIOs in the past week, we can confidently say two things: higher interest rates for longer is the consensus call and listed equities are back in fashion.

Our CIOs can all see rates are coming down in some parts of the world – Europe, Canada, for example – but none of them told us to expect any dramatic changes to either Australian or US interest rates this year, pushing the bulk of the rate cuts story into 2025.

They’re also holding firm on equities allocations, having done well in shares in FY24 and wanting to capture what is left in the rally.

While the CIOs shift asset allocation levers, they leave it to internal or external stock pickers to adjust equities portfolios.

So, how will stock pickers try to make money in this environment?

We’ve gone to a few of Australia’s top equities shops to find out, including four investors who manage money for the philanthropic Future Generation Australia or its sister fund Future Generation Global, both listed on the ASX.

Sage Capital’s Sean Fenton, a long/short investor, is avoiding Australian banks and retailers and buying travel stocks.

He thinks the RBA will keep rates on hold for the rest of this year in a bid to topple sticky inflation.

“The RBA may consider a hike or two, but it would be pretty tough to mount a case for cutting rates even though there are signs that the economy is softening,” Fenton says.

Fenton is steering clear of retailers, including blue chips Harvey Norman, JB Hi-Fi and Wesfarmers, and think the banks have run too hard.

“[The banks] rallied strongly last year on hopes of a rate cut and, despite increased competition, profits have been supported as they have released provisions for bad loans,” he says.

“However, rate hikes and only a small tick up in bad debts would leave their elevated valuations looking vulnerable.”

That underweight banks call is popular in institutional equities-land. Macquarie’s banks analysts were reiterating their underweight the sector call on Monday morning, agreeing the banks cannot grow off the low impairment charges forever.

For winners, Fenton is turning to asset-rich Baby Boomers who are fuelling takings at travel companies.

“The demographic that travels and has net assets – the Baby Boomers – benefit from higher rates. So travel, while in the consumer discretionary sector, is more resilient to rate hikes than banks or retailers,” he says.

He likes Flight Centre, Webjet and Qantas, which he says can also benefit from operational improvements.

Gold, Block

Paradice Investment Management’s Tom Richardson, another long/short investor, reckons the market is pricing the likelihood of interest rate cuts appropriately: about a 50 per cent probability of a rate rise in Australia by September, and two cuts in the US this year.

He likes gold for its past performance in rate-cutting cycles, and bigwig Newmont Mining in particular.

“Following their acquisition of Newcrest last year, the world’s largest gold miner has a portfolio of long-life and low-cost mines,” he says.

“They are currently looking to sell some smaller mines which will de-gear the balance sheet and provide capital management options.”

He also nominated Block Inc, the US payments group that hit the ASX-boards when it acquired Australia’s Afterpay two years ago, which he says could win from those eventual rate cuts.

“While the investment is far from predicated on interest rate cuts, we would expect the company to benefit from increased consumer confidence and spending,” he says.

“The business has evolved over the past year instilling financial discipline across all units. We see a long runway for growth at an attractive valuation.”

Global view, careful on cuts

Magellan Financial’s Nikki Thomas has a global portfolio. She thinks the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates just once this year or not at all, allowing the election to play out and recognising that economic growth is “still quite good”.

“Most indicators suggest to us that aside from some slowing among consumers, most of the cyclical parts of economies are bottoming or turning up,” Thomas says.

“This will accelerate if interest rates come down.”

She says her portfolio is invested between high-quality defensives (Colgate, Stryker, UnitedHealth, for example) which have growth prospects and resilience to a deteriorating economy or a black swan event, and structural growth companies like Microsoft, Amazon, ASML and Netflix.

Her stock picks, though? NYSE owner Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and Amazon.

“ICE should benefit from ongoing good volumes in many of its markets,” she says. “The upside should come from its mortgage originations business where it acquired Black Knight and is building out a technology platform to automate mortgage origination. If rates come down, originations (which are virtually at a standstill as buyers wait for better rates) will return.

“Amazon is a structural winner in both cloud and AI as well as a business with significant margin potential in its US e-commerce operations as it leverages its scaled and now regionalised logistics capability.”

Quality, defensive small caps

In small caps land, perhaps the most interesting and hottest contested part of Australian institutional equities, Eley Griffiths co-founder Ben Griffiths reckons the RBA will be reluctant to lift rates.

He says it is also OK if the RBA does not cut rates in the near term; the market’s happy to sit tight.

“Given the All Ordinaries Index is currently flirting with historic highs, now is not the time to lose resolve towards stocks,” Griffiths says.

“The market is now well conditioned for indefinitely high interest rates. We continue to own quality names with defensive earnings attributes to better withstand a more challenging economic conditions.”

He tips gold miner Capricorn Metals and funds management investor Pinnacle Investment Management Group as key stock picks.

Anthony Macdonald is a Chanticleer columnist. He is a former Street Talk co-editor and has 10 years’ experience as a business journalist and worked at PwC, auditing and advising financial services companies. Connect with Anthony on Twitter. Email Anthony at a.macdonald@afr.com

Disclaimer:

This material (or any contribution to it) is not intended to constitute advertising or advice (including legal, tax or investment advice or security recommendation) of any kind.  It is of a general nature only and was current only at the time of initial publication. The information and opinions contained herein are not necessarily all-inclusive and, as such, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of any assumption contained herein and no responsibility arising for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Paradice, its officers, employees or agents.  It may contain certain forward looking statements, opinions and projections that are based on the assumptions and judgments of Paradice with respect to, among other things, future economic, competitive and market conditions and future business decisions, all of which are difficult or impossible to predict accurately and many of which are beyond the control of Paradice. Because of the significant uncertainties inherent in these assumptions, opinions and judgments, you should not place undue reliance on these forward looking statements. You should consider your own needs and objectives and consult with a licensed financial adviser. For the avoidance of doubt, any such forward looking statements, opinions, assumptions and/or judgments made by Paradice may not prove to be accurate or correct.  References to securities may or may not represent the holdings of the Paradice Funds. It does not reflect any events or changes in circumstances occurring after the date of publication.

The information may contain confidential, proprietary, privileged or copyright material belonging to us, related entities or third parties and may not be copied, reproduced, published, disclosed or redistributed in any format without the prior approval of Paradice.

Contributors:

Tom Richardson

Further Information

Report: Why is the Iron Ore Price so High?

Report: Why is the Iron Ore Price so High?

Shifting from being underweight to overweight iron ore has been a significant change in the Paradice Australian Equity portfolio over the last 3 months.

Iron ore price resilience has surprised many market watchers during the course of 2023. A weak Chinese economy still struggling with the economic after effects of pandemic related lockdowns and a dire property market outlook had many of us expecting iron ore prices to be sub US$100 by year end. Instead iron ore prices have rallied hard through what is typically a seasonally weak third quarter to a current year high of US$136 per tonne.

So what’s happened?

In large part, the demand strength in iron ore relates to the build out of energy transition infrastructure and strong machinery manufacturing outweighing the negative demand effects of lower residential property construction and decelerating growth rates in traditional areas of fixed asset investment like roads and bridges. As an example, China is currently adding the equivalent of Australia’s entire solar panel installations base every 6 to 8 weeks and is the world’s largest installer of wind turbines used to generate renewable energy. Whilst the manufacture of solar panels themselves is not steel intensive the energy related infrastructure enabling the tying in of renewable energy sources into the grid does use a lot of copper, aluminium and steel.

The shift in steel demand from construction to machinery and energy related infrastructure has also led to a change in demand for the type of steel required to manufacture those products. Construction requires large amounts of long steel whilst machinery requires large amounts of flat steel. Long steel is made in Electric Arc Furnaces using huge amounts of scrap metal. Flat steel is made in blast furnaces and requires iron ore and coking coal as key ingredients.

In essence what we have seen is aggregate steel demand broadly stable over 2023 but a significant change in the composition of the type of steel made during the year which has favoured iron ore focused steel making processes rather than scrap metal processes. This has led to incrementally stronger demand for iron ore and weaker demand for scrap.

On the iron ore supply side, we have seen only modest increases in exports from higher cost jurisdictions like India and other parts of Asia and Europe. Thus stronger iron ore demand has not been offset by incremental supply ultimately leading to higher iron ore prices.

What now?

China’s economic malaise looks be persisting in the short term given the Chinese government’s inability to kickstart domestic consumption. What is changing though is the Chinese government’s desire to stimulate economic activity with a raft of pro-growth policies implemented during the past three months. These policies are increasingly reverting to the commodity intensive growth model of old and are aimed at supporting property construction, the continued build out of critical infrastructure as well as putting a floor under domestic consumer confidence which has hampered consumption to date.

We are seeing lead indicators of Chinese commodity intensive demand currently inflecting higher which bodes quite well for iron ore and bulk commodity prices into 2024 as well as the earnings and dividend generating ability of our largest miners BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue. Whilst iron prices at US$136 are unlikely to be sustainable into 2024 anything over US$100 means our big miners will be delivering strong returns from the iron ore gift that keeps on giving.

In our view, at iron ore prices of US$100 and above BHP and Rio Tinto can sustain dividend yields of 6% and greater even despite a relatively heavier capital expenditure period in the years ahead. Any inflection or re-acceleration in global growth will also support other portfolio commodities like copper and aluminium which are significant contributors to BHP and Rio Tinto earnings respectively and is another reason both stocks feature in the Paradice Australian Equity portfolios.

 

Chinese Construction Company Order Intake

As of 7 December 2023

Disclaimer:

This material is prepared by the Paradice Australian Equities strategy team at Paradice Investment Management Pty Ltd (ABN 64 090 148 619 AFSL No 224158 ) (Paradice, we or us). 

This material is not intended to constitute advertising or advice (including investment advice or security, market or sector recommendations) of any kind. In addition, this material represents only the views of Australian Equities team as at the time of release and is not intended, and may not, represent the views of Paradice or any of the other investment teams (including the small caps, mid caps and global teams at Paradice).

This material is not to be copied, reproduced or published at any time without the prior written consent of Paradice. In no event should Paradice or any affiliated party be liable for any direct or indirect trading losses caused by any information in this material. You further agree to do your own research and due diligence, consult your own financial, legal, and tax advisors before making any investment decision with respect to transacting in any securities covered herein. Following publication of this material, the investment teams at Paradice may transact or continue to transact in any of the securities covered herein, and may be long, short, or neutral at any time hereafter regardless of our initial conclusions, or opinions.

The information and opinions contained herein, including information obtained from third party sources which are considered to be reliable, are not necessarily all inclusive and, as such, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of any assumption contained herein and no responsibility arising for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Paradice, its officers, employees or agents.

Any rates of return, forecasts or estimates contained in this publication are not guaranteed. It is of a general nature only and was current only at the time of initial publication.

Copyright© 2023 Paradice

Julia Weng Speaks to Ausbiz about Rate Hikes and Market Spikes

Julia Weng Speaks to Ausbiz about Rate Hikes and Market Spikes

Portfolio Manager / Analyst from our Australian Equities team, Julia Weng, speaks to AusBiz about the potential RBA rate hikes, the Aussie dollar’s potential rebound and investment strategies.

Watch the video here.

Disclaimer:

This material (or any contribution to it) is not intended to constitute advertising or advice (including legal, tax or investment advice or security recommendation) of any kind.  It is of a general nature only and was current only at the time of initial publication. The information and opinions contained herein are not necessarily all-inclusive and, as such, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of any assumption contained herein and no responsibility arising for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Paradice, its officers, employees or agents.  It may contain certain forward looking statements, opinions and projections that are based on the assumptions and judgments of Paradice with respect to, among other things, future economic, competitive and market conditions and future business decisions, all of which are difficult or impossible to predict accurately and many of which are beyond the control of Paradice. Because of the significant uncertainties inherent in these assumptions, opinions and judgments, you should not place undue reliance on these forward looking statements. You should consider your own needs and objectives and consult with a licensed financial adviser. For the avoidance of doubt, any such forward looking statements, opinions, assumptions and/or judgments made by Paradice may not prove to be accurate or correct.  References to securities may or may not represent the holdings of the Paradice Funds.  The content of this publication is current as at the date of its publication and is subject to change at any time. It does not reflect any events or changes in circumstances occurring after the date of publication.

Tom Richardson Shares his Views on Current Market Tendencies

Tom Richardson Shares His Views on the Current Market Tendencies

Portfolio Manager / Analyst from our Australian Equities team, Tom Richardson, speaks to AusBiz regarding his views on the current market tendencies.

Watch the interview via the link.

Disclaimer:

This material (or any contribution to it) is not intended to constitute advertising or advice (including legal, tax or investment advice or security recommendation) of any kind.  It is of a general nature only and was current only at the time of initial publication. The information and opinions contained herein are not necessarily all-inclusive and, as such, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of any assumption contained herein and no responsibility arising for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Paradice, its officers, employees or agents.  It may contain certain forward looking statements, opinions and projections that are based on the assumptions and judgments of Paradice with respect to, among other things, future economic, competitive and market conditions and future business decisions, all of which are difficult or impossible to predict accurately and many of which are beyond the control of Paradice. Because of the significant uncertainties inherent in these assumptions, opinions and judgments, you should not place undue reliance on these forward looking statements. You should consider your own needs and objectives and consult with a licensed financial adviser. For the avoidance of doubt, any such forward looking statements, opinions, assumptions and/or judgments made by Paradice may not prove to be accurate or correct.  References to securities may or may not represent the holdings of the Paradice Funds.  The content of this publication is current as at the date of its publication and is subject to change at any time. It does not reflect any events or changes in circumstances occurring after the date of publication.

Julia Weng Speaks to Ausbiz about the Latest Reporting Season

Julia Weng Speaks to Ausbiz about the Latest Reporting Season

Portfolio Manager / Analyst from our Australian Equities team, Julia Weng, speaks to AusBiz on the recent reporting season in Australia.

Watch the interview via the link.

Disclaimer:

This material (or any contribution to it) is not intended to constitute advertising or advice (including legal, tax or investment advice or security recommendation) of any kind.  It is of a general nature only and was current only at the time of initial publication. The information and opinions contained herein are not necessarily all-inclusive and, as such, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of any assumption contained herein and no responsibility arising for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Paradice, its officers, employees or agents.  It may contain certain forward looking statements, opinions and projections that are based on the assumptions and judgments of Paradice with respect to, among other things, future economic, competitive and market conditions and future business decisions, all of which are difficult or impossible to predict accurately and many of which are beyond the control of Paradice. Because of the significant uncertainties inherent in these assumptions, opinions and judgments, you should not place undue reliance on these forward looking statements. You should consider your own needs and objectives and consult with a licensed financial adviser. For the avoidance of doubt, any such forward looking statements, opinions, assumptions and/or judgments made by Paradice may not prove to be accurate or correct.  References to securities may or may not represent the holdings of the Paradice Funds.  The content of this publication is current as at the date of its publication and is subject to change at any time. It does not reflect any events or changes in circumstances occurring after the date of publication.

Subscribe to our newsletter for updates.

Visit our site for individuals and financial advisors.

Visit our site for institutional investors.